The ‘Race to the Eight’ is heating up this weekend. With only 5 rounds to go until the play-offs, teams across the Vodacom URC are starting to feel the pressure.
So far, Leinster are the only team to have punched their ticket to the Dance, and with 10 teams fighting for 7 places, any slip-ups in this final run-in could mean the premature end of a team’s season.
Alongside Playoff places, teams are also looking to claim ownership of their regional shields. This year, these shields carry a greater reward as the URC will share its platforms and several promotional rights with the chosen charity partners of each of this season’s Shield winners.
With 5 weeks to make or break a season – It’s crunch time in the URC.
Relentless Leinster but Ulster are not safe yet
Leinster enter Round 14 in an enviable position.
As the only confirmed Playoff team, Leinster could be forgiven for wanting to put their feet up as their rivals scrap for the remaining places – but that is not the Leinster way.
They currently sit atop the URC table, with 12 back-to-back wins and having scored the most tries and second-most points in the tournament so far.
With two more regional fixtures against Ulster and Connacht, Leinster are also in prime position to claim the Irish Shield. Even better for the Leinster fans, the Irish giants also announced the arrival of All-Black superstar Jordie Barret for a ‘sabbatical’ next season.
Whilst we can add ‘Leinster in the play-offs’ to the list of constants alongside life, death, and taxes, last season’s quarter-finalists Ulster have struggled and find themselves in a fight for a play-off place.
Ulster currently sit eighth in the table, on the fringes of the playoff places. Per Elixirr’s simulations, the Irish side currently have a 68% chance of making the post-season with a tricky run-in with Leinster at home, Munster away, and Benetton at home. However, victory over Cardiff this week would considerably boost their cup chances to 78% likelihood.
The Ulster faithful best be prepared to make the Kingspan Stadium a fortress if they want to see their team make the quarter-finals again.
An Italian post-season debut?
Benetton have had a historic season so far and could well become the first-ever Italian side to make the URC play-offs.
Currently sitting sixth in the URC table, Benetton have surprised many this season with some major results – including victories over the Stormers, Lions, and Cardiff. They’ve also qualified for the Challenge Cup semi-final where they will face English talent for the first time this season in the form of Gloucester.
Benetton’s impressive performances have given them a 58% chance of making the play-offs (per our model), though they face a set of hazardous away fixtures to Ulster, Sharks, and Bulls as part of their run-in. Round 14 is crucial for the Italian side; victory over Dragons this weekend would bolster their chances to 65%, and a loss would put them down to 38% likelihood.
Bolstered by young talent (including Six Nations ‘Player of the Tournament’ Tommaso Menoncello), this Benetton side are not one to write off easily.
Bulls and Stormers are nearly there whilst Sharks Suffer
Victory for the Bulls and Stormers this weekend will all but guarantee the two South African sides a place in the play-offs.
The Bulls, touting the league’s best attack, currently sit third in the table and will face Cardiff this week with victory providing them a >99% probability of making it to the final 8. The Stormers face a potentially tricky fixture against Ospreys, who are looking to improve their dwindling play-off hopes with a victory over last season’s runners-up. If the Welsh side wins, their chances will improve by 23%, but a loss will only give them an 11% chance of making it to the play-offs – the greatest probability swing in any game this round.
While their South African counterparts look close to sealing 2/3 places in the final 8, the Sharks are officially out of contention.
Despite a loaded squad featuring eight 2023 World Cup winners, the Sharks have failed to fire this season and currently sit thirteenth in the table – though they come into Round 14 having strung together three back-to-back wins for the first time this season.
As the URC hits the home straight, the scrap for the play-offs appears more hotly contested than ever – who will make it in the Race to the Eight?
>>>Story courtesy of www.unitedrugby.com<<<
